Note: Updated comments
Minuteman Project founder Jim Gilchrist did an excellent job of organizing the Minuteman volunteer project to enforce immigration laws along the Mexican border. He put a national spotlight on the disgraceful failure of our federal government to enforce our immigration laws.
(Footnote: Yesterday’s headline of the Press of Atlantic City read: “SUV crashes into Egg Harbor Township home, killing two”. The article described how driver Ober Canales was drunk and how his speeding car missed the curve on the Black Horse Pike in West Atlantic City, and slammed into a house killing the parents of three children in their bed as they slept. When the driver failed to back his car out by running over the bodies a second time, he fled on foot, and was held by angry neighbors until police arrived. Only in small print in the last paragraph did the article mention that the drunk driver was an illegal immigrant from Honduras with a phony social security card and green card in his possession).
But when Jim Gilchrist ran for Congress, in Orange County, he came in 26,507 votes. Organization Republican John Campbell came in first with 46,184 votes, and Democrat Steve Young came in second with 26,507 votes. Why did Gilchrist lose?
Yesterday, I said the Wall Street Journal said this is proof that most American voters are not bothered by illegal immigration. Libertarian campaign consultant Chuck Muth said that Gilchrist lost because he did not pay enough attention to absentee ballots and identifying, targeting, and getting his likely supporters to vote.
Former candidate for governor and Mayor of Bogota Steve Lonegan, and his campaign manager Rick Shaftan offered these opinions:
Mayor Steve Lonegan: “This was a terrific campaign. I know, I was there. This guy Chuck is nothing but sour grapes. He left the campaign, even though he was paid in full, when he did not convince Jim to come out for gay marriage. Very unprofessional.
Jim Gilchrist performed very well. He has never been a candidate before. He put this campaign together in only six weeks and ran against an established Republican in a solid Republican district. Jim delivered a powerful message to Washington. I am proud to have been part of the effort. What message has Chuck Muth delivered?”
Rick Shaftan, Campaign Consultant: “Chuck Muth is an #@&%# who has never won a campaign but is always ready to give "advice" to others for a fee. He "worked" for Gilchrist doing essentially nothing until he walked out in a hissy fit after Gilchrist came out against Gay Marriage. Steve and I were both involved in that race. You should have contacted either of us before sending this out, rather than relying on Muth's sour grapes whining. The only way Gilchrist could have won is if liberal pro-abortion Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer had won the GOP nomination which didn't happen.” Seth Grossman. http://www.libertyandprosperity.org/.
Note: first Comments below.
Update from http://www.libertyandprosperity.org/.
Minuteman Project founder Jim Gilchrist ran as an independent for Congress in a special election last week in California’s 48th Congressional District (Orange County). The Minuteman Project embarrassed the federal government into enforcing immigration laws by showing how easy it was for volunteer citizens to do the job. He lost. He won the voting machine election on election day, but got clobbered on absentee ballots.
|
|
Reg/Turnout |
Percentage |
|
Total Registered Voters |
405655 |
|
|
Precinct Registration |
405655 |
|
|
Precinct Ballots Cast |
36050 |
8.9% |
|
Early Ballots Cast |
28 |
0.0% |
|
Absentee Ballots Cast |
68327 |
16.8% |
|
Total Ballots Cast |
104405 |
25.7% |
|
|
Vote Count |
Percentage |
|
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) |
46184 |
44.4% |
|
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) |
28853 |
27.8% |
|
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) |
26507 |
25.5% |
|
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) |
1430 |
1.4% |
|
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) |
974 |
0.9% |
|
STEVEN WESLEY BLAKE (REP) |
0 |
0.0% |
Friday’s editorial of the Wall Street Journal said this is proof that most American voters are not bothered by illegal immigration. “Anti-(illegal) immigration candidates have tried in the recent past to defeat GOP incumbents in Utah and Arizona, to no avail. . . If restrictionists now can’t come close to prevaioing in an open seat, and in a Southern California district located less than two hours from the Mexico border, where can they win?”
Pro-Liberty political consultant Chuck Muth tells a different story on why Jim Gilchrist lost this important election.
WHY MINUTEMAN FOUNDER JIM GILCHRIST LOST THE ELECTION:
Jim Gilchrist, founder of the Minuteman project and candidate in yesterday's special election for California's 48th congressional district seat, pulled in an impressive 25% of the vote as a third-party candidate against the two major party candidates. This is a rather significant achievement, as it's the best any third-party candidate has ever done, to the best of my knowledge, in this extremely conservative district.
It's even more significant when you consider the fact that the candidate ran on one issue and one issue only: illegal immigration. The candidate was, in fact, so far out of his league on every other issue that his campaign kept him out of any potentially unfriendly public debates in the closing weeks leading up to the general election.
If a third-party, single-issue candidate like Gilchrist can pull a quarter of the vote in a congressional election, imagine what a credible GOP challenger could do to a Republican incumbent who's been wishy-washy on this issue. Or worse, has been carrying the White House's "amnesty" water (hello, Chris Cannon!).
GILCHRIST SHOULD HAVE WON THIS RACE: This falls into the category of "those who fail to learn from history are destined to repeat it."
Jim Gilchrist, Minuteman Project founder and IAP (or is it AIP) candidate for the special election in California's 48th congressional district, didn't listen to the campaign professionals and neglected to put together an early voting and absentee ballot program in the September primary election.
Nor did the campaign do any kind of voter identification work which would have ID'ed voters who normally don't vote in off-year elections - but may have been motivated by the illegal immigration issue - and then targeted those voters with an aggressive get-out-the-vote operation.
So when the primary election results came in, it showed that Republican John Campbell crushed Gilchrist in the absentee ballot vote. However, he barely squeaked by him on election day itself.
Did Gilchrist learn anything from that experience?
Nope.
Going into the general election held yesterday, Gilchrist again did no targeted voter ID or GOTV work and again neglected to put together an effective absentee ballot program. Nevertheless, Gilchrist still got 25 percent of the total vote.
Rather impressive...until you consider the fact that he actually could have WON the race had he listened to his former campaign manager, Howie Morgan, and other professional political advisers who had experience in old-fashioned grassroots nuts-and-bolts.
Here's the tale of two elections:
Gilchrist actually BEAT Campbell on election day. Of the ballots cast in-person yesterday, Campbell received 10,555 votes - or 30.5 percent. Gilchrist, however, received 12,293 votes - or 35.5 percent. In fact, even the Democrat in the race defeated Campbell in yesterday's voting, garnering 11,229 votes - or 32.4 percent of the vote.
But in the absentee ballot race - the one in which Gilchrist did absolutely NOTHING - Campbell racked up 30,895 votes - or 53.2 percent. Compared to Gilchrist who chalked up just 10,944 votes - or 18.8 percent of the vote. Campbell actually won this race before the polls even opened yesterday. The reality is, Campbell won by default. The Gilchrist campaign simply didn't show up for the first half of the game.
This is one of the reasons I was so ticked off with Gilchrist and his senior consultant and left the campaign way back in mid-August. A targeted voter-ID/GOTV program - complete with a targeted absentee ballot direct mail campaign - was discussed at the FIRST MEETING I ever had with Gilchrist. The plan and budget were drafted, submitted...and ignored by the general consultant.
Not once, but twice.
Radio ads, I guess, are just more ego-gratifying and "sexy" than old-fashioned grassroots targeting and direct mail.
Ah, what might have been. For those who think Gilchrist's 25% finish "sends a message" to the GOP, think how much louder that message would have been had Jim actually WON.
http://www.libertyandprosperity.org/.
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Date: December 7, 2005 (64 years since Pear Harbor)
From Dr H. Garber an "Independent Republican"
To Walter Moore (LA Mayoral Candidate vs Villaraigosa)
Re Minuteman Loss or Victory
To CC's & BCC's
Walter,
Excellent analysis and summary. Hope both you and Jim Gilchrist will try again. At least Jim's campaign caused Campbell to "change his stripes". Toward end, he sounded like a longtime anti-illegal activist! Forwarding your posting to my list.
Still can't get over LA voters choosing "open borders", anti Prop 187, Mecha activist, etc. Villaraigosa as mayor. Glad we're in OC.
HG
PS
Visit www.acru and click TV Archives to view my 2 half hour interviews with Jim.
_______________________________________________
Minuteman Loss Or Victory?
December 7, 2005
by Walter Moore
Minuteman Jim Gilchrist will not be rushing to catch a plane to Washington, D.C., today, to start serving as Orange County's newest Congressman. You can, however, nonetheless conclude that Gilchrist won a huge victory -- even if you don't smoke crack. * * * (Click here for detailed figures on voter registration details, and here for detailed figures from the election .)
Gilchrist scored a victory by moving us much closer to the day when a majority of voters have the guts to vote for the best candidate, rather than settling for the proverbial "lesser of two evils." Unfortunately, voters consistently outsmart themselves by voting for candidates they hate. They vote for the less horrible of the two "front-runners," thereby reinforcing the self-fulfilling prophesy that an independent can't possibly win. This vicious cycle encourages the two main political parties to take their members for granted, and discourages anyone but party hacks from running for office. Thanks to Jim Gilchrist, however, we may actually live to see the day where a majority of people in a California election are "stupid" enough to "throw away" their votes by voting for the best candidate.
Consider the numbers. Gilchrist got 25% of the vote (i.e., 23,237 votes), even though his American Independent party constitutes just 2% of the registered voters in his district. So where did he get the rest? Assuming that voter turn-out was essentially the same regardless of party affiliation, the answer is as follows:
Republicans provided 5.3% of Gilchrist's 25%: the Republican candidate got just 44.7% of the vote, even though the party constitutes 50% of the registered voters. In other words, over 10% of the Republicans voting were willing to cross party lines to vote for the candidate they deemed best. Independents provided the remaining 17.7% of Gilchrist's 25%; they constitute 19.1% of the district's registered voters. Democrats, however, did Gilchrist no favors: they constitute 27.1% of the registered voters, and their candidate got 27.96% of the vote -- not much more than Gilchrist.
So what should you make of the numbers?
Well, if you're pessimistic, you can say they prove that only candidates from the two major parties can win. But when is the last time you heard of a third-party candidate getting 25% of the vote in a California election? That's huge. That 25% may encourage, say, another 10% in the next election to vote for the best candidate, rather than the lesser of two evils. Think "snowball effect:" 25% turns into 35% , which emboldens another 10%, and, after a few elections, you could get over 50% of the people actually voting for the best candidate, regardless of party affiliation. You never know till you try. And there will be plenty of opportunities, as there's an election in California about every 73 days.
The Minuteman did his part. He fought the battle hard, captured some serious political real estate, and survived to fight again. The American Revolution wasn't won in a single battle. And the odds were overwhelmingly against us. Plus, we didn't have snazzy uniforms like the Brits. But we won anyway. Let's remember that when the next election rolls around, and the one after that.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Dr H Garber, "Independent Republican"
Re: A "Win" for Minuteman Jim Gilchrist
CC's & BCC's
Had this "Independent Republican" and family been able to, we'd have cast our votes for Minuteman candidate Jim Gilchrist. Yes, we're disappointed re the victory of vacillating Repub Campbell who changed his partisan stripes re illegal immigration, etc. toward end of his campaign, -- but it was also a "win" for Minuteman Jim whose grass roots efforts captured the entire nation's attention and Pres Bush's as well.
Consider the fact that independent Jim got 25% of the vote (23,237 votes) while his American Independent Party had only 2% of the registered voters in his district. Conclusion: Many disenchanted, anti-illegal, "law & order" Republicans and Independents voted the best man rather than their party's man. And, remember Jim was persuaded to run only 5 months before the election, and with very meager funds, compared to Repub Campbell's 11 month campaign with over $1 million to spend.
Let's, therefore, all recognize, appreciate and promote this very significant, nonpartisan, conservative, patriotic independent trend, and we'll succeed in taking America back. Congratulations to dedicated Jim Gilchrist, his campaign chairman Steve Eichler, the CCIR and all who helped in the campaign.
HG
PS FYI: I was the "independent Repub candidate" in 2000 Repub Cong. Primary, (46th Dist) against anti-Prop 187 Gloria Matta who was supported by the OC Republican Pty. Tho outspent 6 to 1, I rec'd almost 40% of Repub vote as an anti-illegal candidate. (Loretta Sanchez was the
Dems candidate.)
_____________________________________________
Special Election Results, 48th Cong Dist:
rnot Percentage
Total Registered Voters 40,5655
Precinct Ballots Cast 34,844 8.6%
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 41,450 - 44.7%
STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 25,926 - 28.0%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 23,237 - 25.1%
BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 1,242 - 1.3%
BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 880 - 0.9%
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